I don’t know. Anyone who gives you a “final price” — including me — is guessing. I’m not dodging. A podcast once asked me where this cycle would top out, and I said “somewhere between $500,000 and $1 million.” That was a guess, not a model, and I don’t use it to make decisions. Why shouldn’t you take numbers like that seriously? Look at analysts’ forecast ranges for 2026: $60,000 to $137,000; for 2027: $55,000 to $200,000; long-term, anywhere from $300,000 to $3 million. A tenfold spread shows this isn’t prediction — it’s sentiment. First, calibrate where we are. BTC is around $86,000 now; the all-time high was $126,073 on October 6, 2025; it’s down about 26% over the past twelve months, with the year’s low near $57,000 in July. In other words, the people shouting six figures last year have already been schooled by the market. “Bitcoin only goes up” isn’t a premise; it’s an illusion. Only one thing really determines that number: adoption. How many people actually treat it as a store of value, not a trading vehicle? How many institutions, sovereign funds, and pension funds can hold it compliantly? Are custody, on/off ramps, tax, and regulatory channels usable? What share of global wealth will ultimately be denominated in Bitcoin? Today that share is so small it’s almost negligible. If it becomes a few percentage points, the price will naturally be six or even seven figures; if it stays where it is today, the price will look like this. This isn’t a price question — it’s an adoption question on a thirty-year scale. My view: long-term up, extremely volatile path, medium conviction — and there will be several more 70% drawdowns along the way. There’s another layer you need to think through yourself: what is that number for you? If you hold it, what you should actually write down isn’t a target price — it’s three things: why you hold it, what share of your total assets it is, and under what conditions you’ll admit your thesis was wrong. Years ago I sold a house to buy crypto, not because I thought it would definitely go up, but because even if it went to zero I could rely on my skills to find work again. That tolerance came from my situation, not from a one-size-fits-all investment script. Don’t treat it as a template. So my answer is: it might end up very high, or far lower than I said — I really don’t know. Don’t ask me for a number; write down those three things. That’s more useful than any target price.
